Major polls still say that President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden in the race to become the country’s next president.
But one man is predicting that NONE of those so-called polls matter at all.
Because this political genius is predicting a HUGE Trump victory this fall… and he’s got the track record AND system to prove it.
Meet Helmut Norpoth, a professor at Stony Brook University's Department of Political Science. He is the creator of the "Primary Model," which the university says has correctly predicted five of the last six elections since 1996.
And just how successful is his model?
Well, according to a report from CBS Austin (TX), it boasts an 83% success rate over the past 25 years when it comes to predicting the outcomes of presidential elections.
And Norpoth’s model now predicts that Trump has a 90% chance of defeating Biden and being re-elected!
Here’s how his model works…
The model relies on the presidential primary results over polling, and Norpoth points out that Biden's poor showing in the first two primary races puts him at a significant disadvantage to Trump.
“It’s all about primary elections, which are real electoral contests and the votes are counted and tabulated,” Norpoth says. “I also use real numbers, such as the results of previous elections, which indicate whether the pendulum is swinging away from or toward the White House party. This is something that also relies on real election results and not any kind of an opinion poll.”
When applied to previous elections, Norpoth's model reportedly correctly predicts 25 of the last 27 contests. The only elections he’s missed? The 2000 election in which George W. Bush defeated Al Gore and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon.
“Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win,” Norpoth said. “It seems crazy. But it’s not.”
Based on this model, if we were a betting group… we’d say to put your money on Trump being re-elected.
Because those sound like pretty good odds to us!